Week 28

Week 28

27/09- This weeks' pick is a bit of an outsider that I’ve talked myself into, so you’ll have to forgive me if it doesn’t work out. I’m looking at a 66/1 shot in the Supreme.

Going through those at the top of the market; I’ve already backed Sir Gerhard, Jonbon could be anything and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him, but I don’t want to back two short prices this far out. I think Kilcruit and Dysart Dynamo go up in trip, I Am Maximus has a shout but has already been backed in from 50’s. Barring these I think a lot of the rest in the market either aren’t good enough, or are in need of further.

The one who I’ve landed on is actually a second season novice in Ha D’Or for Willie Mullins. He’s only had three runs to date, winning a 1 mile 3 flat bumper in France, showing lots of speed. He looked an early contender for last years Triumph, finishing third in a three year old group two, closely matched with Busselton and Saint Sam, Cheltenham hero and grade one winner Jeff Kidder was all the way back in seventh. He was only seen once more finishing virtually pulled up in the Spring Juvenile grade one at Leopardstown, which was won by Triumph victor Quilixios. We know this wasn’t his true form as on hurdles debut he finished close up with Busselton who was third this day and beat Saint Sam who was second. The fact he finished tailed off and wasn’t seen again last year leads me to believe there was an issue.

On pedigree he looks fairly well related by an underrated sire in Nidor, he is the only foal from a Network mare, Network being the sire of Sprinter Sacre and Delta Work for those who don't know. His sire's best offspring include Grade Three and Listed winner Valtor, and multiple French listed winner, Corazones who has racked up around £400,000 in prize money. Considering his limited sample size, Nidor's offspring have done very well, and Ha D'Or having only run three times, could end up being the best of them.

Having been given time to get over that issue, he retains his novice status this season having not won a race and going forward does need to bounce back, but he was clearly well thought of last year and looks to have been forgotten. At 66/1 this is a speculative each way and not one to go mad on. I think based on pedigree there is even an argument to say that they step him up to the Ballymore trip, so will also have a small each way on him for that race too.